Strong Economic and Population Growth Propels Atlantic Region Forward
SAINT JOHN — Atlantic Canada has “the wind in its sails,” according to the Public Policy Forum’s latest report.
The Atlantic Canada Momentum Index looks at twenty data-based indicators, to answer the following question: What are the current measures of economic and social momentum in Atlantic Canada?
“We had a sense in recent years that things were changing in Atlantic Canada. We had a momentum that we hadn’t experienced before,” says Aldéa Landry, deputy premier of New Brunswick from 1987-1991. Landry along with 16 other former Atlantic Canadian politicians such as Catherine Callbeck, Darrell Dexter, and Brian Tobin wrote an endorsement of the importance of the report.
“The work that the PPF does with the indicators and the measurement is that it moves it from anecdote to data, and research-based conclusions,” she says.
The indicators which include measures like: real GDP; population; immigration; education rate, employment rate; research and development; and life satisfaction, are grouped into domains to provide a bigger picture of the trajectory of the region. These domains are: macro economy; human capital; the labour market; innovation and investment; and quality of life.
A further two questions; What provincial and regional targets should be established vis-à-vis the indicators in this report and their relative position with the rest of Canada? and; What policies will best help facilitate the bridging of gaps that ill-serve the residents of Atlantic Canada’s four provinces and provide them with a more prosperous and fair future?, will be answered in upcoming reports as a part of the PPF’s Atlantic Initiative, which aims to ‘increase the voice of Atlantic Canada within the national policy landscape.’
Having a strong voice on the national policy landscape is going to become an increasingly important issue as Atlantic Canada rises to more prominence within the county.
“What’s important about these indicators as well, is they provide a baseline,” Landry says, noting that the PPF is going to continue to measure these indicators over the next 10 years to chart Atlantic Canada’s performance.
The hope is that the positive momentum will continue.
“We need public policy to make that happen,” Landry says of the continued positive trajectory. “Government will have to look at the policies accordingly. The work that PPF is doing will inform local policy.”
“To have good policy, you have to have good data.”
According to the report, Atlantic Canada’s population and economy are hitting highs not seen since the early 1960s. In the period from 2015-2022, 14 of the 20 indicators in Atlantic Canada showed not only improvements but sustained momentum. While Atlantic Canada is still striving to close the gap between it and the rest of Canada in terms of wages, economic opportunities and population, there is a notable shift in the trends in the region.
Atlantic Canadian real GDP accelerated in the 2015-2022 period, while it decelerated in the rest of Canada. In 2021, real GDP per capita was $47,748 (2012 dollars), which is 87 percent of the national level of $55,022. In 2015, Atlantic Canadian GDP was only at 85 percent of the national level.
Atlantic Canada’s population also continues to grow at an increasing pace. According to the report “The pickup in population growth in Atlantic Canada after 2015 was four times larger than the national figure, although both showed momentum”. Immigration continues to be a big driver of population growth with the number of immigrants to the region doubling in the 2016-2022 period from the period before.
Atlantic Canada also stood out in terms of educational achievement with the proportion of working age people getting a tertiary education accelerating at a rate above the national average. As a result employment amongst 15-64 year olds also showed positive momentum with labour productivity increasing to 1.8 percent per year from 2015 to 2021, which the report describes as “strong momentum.”
One place where New Brunswick stood out amongst its Atlantic Canadian peers is in business enterprise in-house expenditure on research and development (BERD), which the report characterizes as “a key metric of innovation intensity and a driver of economic opportunity and growth.”
Landry says there’s one domain that she thinks is the most important of all.
“Quality of life is very important,” says Landry. “That’s one of the reasons people are moving here. And also, that’s one of the reasons people are staying here.”
And it’s reflected in the data. The immigration retention rate was in negative territory in the 2008-2015 period, but moved positive in 2015-2022. Being able to attract, and retain not just immigrants, but everyone, with superior educational and employment opportunities, along with a strong quality of life, is important to the region’s ongoing success.
“You need someone from outside to come in and tell you how good you are,” Landry says, noting that the report has provided the validation for the sense that she and others were getting about the momentum shift in the region. “We become what we believe we are…that sense of pride and developing confidence as we’re developing ourselves.”
“I’m very optimistic about the future.”
Alex Graham is a Huddle reporter in Saint John. Send her your feedback and story ideas: [email protected].