Moncton, Halifax Lead Canada In Population Growth
SAINT JOHN — Moncton, Halifax, and Charlottetown are leading Canada in population growth as an increasing number of young adults chose to make Atlantic Canada their home.
“The largest share [of population growth] is in the 25 to 35 age group,” says Patrick Brannon, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council (APEC). He says attracting this age group is “very positive”.
“The fact they’re leading the country is [a] pretty unique happening for our Atlantic cities.”
Atlantic Canada has been a big beneficiary of both immigration from other countries and interprovincial migration, the organization has found in its latest report: “Atlantic City Trends”.
Brannon says other provinces’ losses have been Atlantic Canada’s gain.
“We’ve seen a pretty steady increase in immigration into cities in the Maritimes [and Newfoundland], especially over the last few years. And, in the past year, it’s just been coupled with a couple of other things, including loads of people coming from other provinces, largely Ontario,” Brannon says.
He says the pandemic continues to be the catalyst, prompting people to seek out more space, relative affordability, and a higher quality of life that can be found in smaller cities.
Halifax saw a growth rate of 4.5 percent over the previous year, which is the second-fastest growth for any city in the country. The city’s population reached 480,000 people in 2022, which is 47 percent of the total population in Nova Scotia.
St. John’s, Newfoundland saw an increase of 2.3 percent, bringing its total population to 219,000 people. The city now accounts for 42 percent of the provincial population.
Charlottetown, PEI grew at 4.2 percent, nearing 87,000 people, which is 51 percent of the total PEI population. It was the third-fastest-growing city in the country in 2022.
New Brunswick’s big three cities also all saw significant growth.
Saint John grew by 2.2 percent and now is home to 136,000 people. Fredericton’s population grew by 3.3 percent and is now home to 116,000.
But Moncton was the big winner, with 5.4 percent population growth, totaling nearly 172,000 people. It was the fastest-growing city in the country, a trajectory it’s been on for several years. Over the past five years, it’s seen an increase of 21,000 people, and last year alone saw 9,000 new people call the Hub City home.
Brannon adds that Moncton in particular has seen a large influx of immigrants from other countries, as Quebec has a 50,000-person limit on its immigration, leaving Moncton as one of the only cities in the rest of Canada with a large French-speaking population.
Brannon estimates that approximately 45 percent of the new people coming to Moncton in the past year have been from outside of the country, while 35 percent are from interprovincial migration. The figures are similar for Halifax.
David Campbell, president of Jupia Consultants and author of a 2019 report on how to attract immigrants to the Moncton area entitled “The Greater Moncton Immigration Strategy 2020-2024,” says government must act now to retain the people who have come.
“We need to ensure there is reasonably priced housing, [including] apartments and rentals. We need to invest in public safety to bring down the crime rate and, in general, we need to invest in public services.”
While housing in Atlantic Canada is still relatively inexpensive for an interprovincial migrant from Ontario, house prices and apartment rental costs of jumped over the past few years, pricing many out of the market. With the highest interest rates the country has seen in years, getting a mortgage is more expensive than ever.
And while adding more people to the province does increase the tax bases, it also puts pressure on already stretched services. Campbell says it will require an investment of tax revenue into public services, proportionate to population growth.
“From the 2021 Census, there were 2,040 physicians in the New Brunswick workforce, or about one for every 380 residents,” Campbell explains. He adds that there are similar arguments to be made about nurses, teachers, and other professionals.
“The population of New Brunswick increased by 23,000 between 2021 and 2022 so we should add another 60 doctors this year alone just to meet the demand from new population. There are also dozens of doctors retiring or leaving the province each year, so there is a lot of work to be done.”
Fortunately, attracting a bigger population means there are more people to contribute to all of the labour challenges New Brunswick will face as Baby Boomers retire.
“We need to attract young people and workers from outside the province to meet workforce demand,” Campbell says. “The population growth in Moncton, Halifax, and elsewhere in the region proves people will move here and should provide the foundation for strong economic growth in the years ahead. A growing economy should mean enough tax revenue to sustain good quality public services moving forward.”
While cities are faring well with the population increases, Patrick Brannon says he hopes rural areas will not get left behind.
“The other piece is not forgetting that the rural areas of Atlantic Canada are important as well. Targeting immigration into those areas will continue to need to be a focus going forward.”
Arlene Dunn, the Minister Responsible for Immigration and Minister Responsible for Opportunities New Brunswick, says that ONB has observed “population growth in both urban and rural communities across New Brunswick, which is great news for our province.”
Dunn says that the province has made a number of strategic investments to retain newcomers to the province including rural area access to reliable broadband internet, as well as affordable housing.
ONB has also made the attraction and retention of skilled newcomers a key priority under the Connect, Grow, Prosper: Strategic Plan 2022-27.
Alex Graham is a Huddle reporter in Saint John. Send her your feedback and story ideas: [email protected].