Contrasting U.S. and Canadian Immigration Data
David Campbell is a Moncton-based economic development consultant and co-host of the Huddle podcast, Insights. The following piece was originally published on his blog, It’s the Economy, Stupid!, on Substack.
I have read several articles recently contrasting recent population growth in the U.S. and Canada. They all draw different conclusions and none get to what I think is the real point.
Some talk about Canada’s vision to have 100 million people by the year 2100 and how the U.S. should have more ambition. Some talk about the problem of too much immigration. A couple just over the weekend talked about Canada’s desire to build global cities in places like Toronto and Vancouver.
Not to beat this topic to death, but Canada’s population growth is primarily about immigration but it is not about Toronto or Montreal or Vancouver.
Yes, those areas continue to attract a lot of immigrants, but the growth is due mostly to the demand for population growth in the rest of Canada. Consider the following chart. In 2022, adjusted for population size, Canada’s biggest urban areas were not even in the Top 10. If you look at the last four years combined (on an average annual basis), Toronto just sneaks into the top 10.
The point is that provincial and federal governments decided several years ago that immigrants were needed across Canada and not just in the biggest urban centres. In the early 2000s, communities like Steinbach and Winkler in Manitoba went first because they had a pressing need for workers. By the 2020s, the demand is across the country, urban and rural.
The U.S. is facing the same demographic realities – mainly Baby Boomer retirements and not enough young people to take their place in the workforce –but they are not seeing a dramatic uptick in immigration to many of the small and mid-sized urban centres (there are many exclusions of course in Texas, California, Nevada, and elsewhere). As a result, there are small cities and towns offering $10,000 bonuses to get people to move there and others are just letting fate take its course.
So, to parrot Richard Florida’s ‘Who’s your city?’, this intentionally awkward question needs to be answered across Canada and the U.S.
It’s not about “Toronto the Great.” For once, it is about Moncton and Charlottetown and Brandon.
We need to make sure economic development, workforce development, and immigration are aligned as much as possible sectorally and geographically.
But the biggest learning here is that folks that think about things in national and international terms need to think a little more about what is going on sub-nationally.
Huddle publishes commentaries from groups and individuals on important business issues facing the Maritimes. These commentaries do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Huddle. To submit a commentary for consideration, contact our editor, Trevor Nichols: [email protected].