Future Politicians Will Exploit Today’s Bad Climate Communication
David Campbell is a Moncton-based economic development consultant and co-host of the Huddle podcast, Insights. The following piece was originally published on his blog, It’s the Economy, Stupid!, on Substack.
When I was a kid my dad used to say “now, you’re cookin’ with gas!” when something was going really well. I’m not sure where he got that statement because I don’t believe we knew anyone that actually cooked with gas (except propane BBQs, I guess).
We don’t have a lot of folks in Atlantic Canada with natural gas cooking stoves, but the few I have talked with are adamant that cooking with gas is much better than electric.
I see now there is a move in the U.S. to ban gas stoves/ovens because of studies linking them to childhood asthma, as well as to reduce carbon emissions.
I have said on many occasions that most people don’t really pay attention to big public policy issues until it becomes personal. Then, watch out.
This, of course, won’t be an issue in Atlantic Canada, where only the elite, for the most part, use gas stoves. But in Ottawa, Toronto, or elsewhere? Get ready for some pushback.
But this is just a harbinger for other big changes to come: banning heating oil, banning the sale of ICE vehicles by 2035, and more. Even “greening” the grid by 2030, most people don’t really pay attention until their power bill is up by 15-20 percent over several years – then they pay attention. And some politicians will be ready to pounce.
My sense is that politicians should be more honest with folks about the timing and cost of net zero 2050 commitments. I have written before that the instinct of politicians and government officials seems to be to downplay the cost: former Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil talked about how wind energy would ensure Nova Scotians have cheap power in the future. Maybe, at some point, he might be right–but someone is going to have to pay billions and billions to get Nova Scotia to a point where it has a pervasive green grid, no oil- or gas-heated homes, and a fully electrified transportation system (not to mentioned carbon-neutral industrial activity).
Because this spade work isn’t being done, it won’t be hard for some political party to get elected on a promise to roll back any changes.
Now, I am told by some of my younger colleagues that it won’t be an issue because young people are prepared to pay and make the lifestyle changes needed to adjust, so the real problem is the 40+ crowd who become less and less relevant as we head towards 2050.
Maybe. But if a Millennial in Miramichi can’t drive their vehicle more than 200 kilometres in the winter without a 45 minute/1 hour fill up, they might get cranky. Or, technological improvements might have gotten to a point that by 2050, the Millennial in Miramichi doesn’t even own or maintain an EV – they just order one on their phone every time they need it and a driverless car pulls up and takes care of the rest.
Who knows?
All I am saying is that we have many examples right here in New Brunswick of the public flexing its muscles and sending governments over a cliff: the proposed sale of NB Power, shale gas, uranium mining, and don’t forget the four-lane highway from Moncton to Fredericton.
Old Al Hogan from the T&T believes he brought down the Theriault government over something as trivial as a toll highway.
After 30 years in the public policy sandbox I still don’t know much, but I do know that people start paying attention when they perceive it will hit them personally.
Better to get out front and make a clear, articulate, and honest case for the change you want.
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