What Happens To New Brunswick If Quebec Gets Serious About Immigration?
David Campbell is a Moncton-based economic development consultant and co-host of the Huddle podcast, Insights. The following piece was originally published on his blog, It’s the Economy, Stupid!, on Substack.
I’ve been writing a bit lately about the need for small provinces like New Brunswick to fight a little harder for their “share” when it comes to big issues like economic development funding, R&D funding, immigration, and new programs to support net-zero.
For example, I am increasingly annoyed about the airport situation in New Brunswick. I don’t know specifics but I have heard from three Ontario colleagues that there are still significantly fewer options for people looking to travel by air to Moncton.
I have a growing concern about immigration and New Brunswick’s ability to attract its “share” of the new permanent residents every year. By my (and others’) estimates, we need to get up to around 10,000 per year. But, after steady increases through 2019, we have not even returned to the pre-pandemic level. Ontario, meanwhile, has already blown through its pre-pandemic numbers.
In 2021, there were 198,000 permanent residents admitted to Ontario, up from 153,000 in 2019. New Brunswick admitted 5,300, compared to 6,000 pre-pandemic.
My new concern relates to the other big dog in confederation: Quebec. In the Quebec-Drummondville agri-food corridor, almost every single manufacturing facility has a “we’re hiring” sign out front. And there are indications of new investments in the corridor, including a massive new cranberry operation. What happens when Quebec gets serious again about immigration?
In 2015, Quebec attracted 18 percent of all permanent residents admitted to Canada. By 2019 (before the pandemic) it was down to 11.9 percent and by 2021 it was 12.4 percent. If La Belle Province wants to get back up to 18 percent in the coming years, that could squeeze out places like New Brunswick even further.
I know the feds are increasing their annual immigration targets but I’m not sure enough people will come to meet the demand. Newfoundland wants to go from 2,000 to 5,500. The west wants more, too. As I have reported on these pages in the past, depending on the scenario, Ontario will demand 230,000 or more per year.
We need to get back on track: 7,000 or so this year would be great. We only have data for the first two months of 2022 but it looks encouraging–we are on pace to attract just under 7,000.
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