Narrative Research Just Recorded Atlantic Canada’s Lowest Consumer Confidence Level In More Than 25 Years
HALIFAX–Consumer confidence continues to slump in Atlantic Canada, with a new survey suggesting spending optimism in the region has reached a new record low.
Halifax-based Narrative Research reached out to 1,450 Atlantic Canadians last month to gauge their consumer confidence level. It found that after a period of slow recovery since the beginning of the pandemic, consumer confidence in Atlantic Canada has declined over the past six months, reaching a new low of 73.8.
Narrative’s Consumer Confidence Index, (CCI) has been charted by the company for more than 25 years and has fluctuated, sometimes to great degrees, through various national, regional, and international events, including 9/11, The Great Recession, and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Narrative creates the CCI by calculating the data from people’s answers to five “key economic-related questions.”
The questions gauge how people feel about the economic situation in their province, the economic health of their household, and how likely they are to make a major purchase in the near future.
Previous low recorded at beginning of pandemic
You don’t have to go back far to find the CCI’s previous record low, taken in May 2020, with consumer confidence heavily impacted by the pandemic’s onset only two months prior.
RELATED: Consumer Confidence Reaches All-Time Low In Atlantic Canada
Since then, Atlantic Canadians’ consumer confidence began what was trending as a slow recovery, before halting toward the end of last year, well before what the research firm would have considered a full recovery.
Consumer confidence dropped 8.6 points in November 2021 from August of the same year. This quarter alone, it dropped another 7.4 points, resting at the all-time low of 73.8.
“These are unprecedented times in our region, with a multitude of factors impacting the consumer psyche,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research. “While there is reason to be optimistic with evidence of a good job market recovery, and provinces easing mandates and restrictions, Atlantic Canadians are clearly concerned about their current and future financial wellbeing.”
Brigley says a reluctance to make major purchases, increased prices, the cost of inflation, and escalating home prices are all contributing to an overall decline in consumer confidence.
The CCI trended downward in all four Atlantic provinces over the past six months, at varying rates.
P.E.I. (80.5) remains the province with the highest CCI in the region, while Newfoundland and Labrador continues to have the lowest CCI score (65.8).
Comparatively, Nova Scotia’s CCI score dropped to 76.9, while New Brunswick’s CCI stands at 74.2.
Across age segments, consumer confidence is lowest among older residents, (70.0 for those 55 or older and 72.8 for those aged 35-54) and highest among those aged 18-34 years (82.2).
It was also lower among those with household incomes below $50K (65.3) compared with those with higher household incomes (73.4 for $50K-$100K and 84.4 for those earning $100K or more).
Polling wrapped before events in Ukraine
The CCI doesn’t capture more recent global events happening in Ukraine, with polling uptake and interview dates occurring last month, before Russia’s unprovoked invasion of the country on Feb 24.
“Our data collection was completed on Feb 23rd, so there was no cross over.” Brigley confirmed to Huddle in an email.
When asked if recent international events and unease about inflation could continue to weigh down consumer confidence, Brigley said that’s very possible.
“The rise in gas prices (post Feb 24th) has been dramatic and something that hits consumers directly,” she said. “I would anticipate that, coupled with continued increasing food costs and the overall cost of living, could further negatively impact consumer confidence.”
“We have tracked consumer confidence in Atlantic Canada every quarter for more than 25 years,” added Brigley. “We’ll be watching to see where CCI stands in Q2.”
Tyler Mclean is a Huddle reporter based in Fredericton. Send him your feedback and story ideas: [email protected].
