Welcoming ‘Our Share’ Of Ukrainian Refugees Will Help N.B. Economy
David Campbell is a Moncton-based economic development consultant and co-host of the Huddle podcast, Insights. The following piece was originally published on his blog, It’s the Economy, Stupid!, on Substack.
I read a while ago that after World War II, when Canada was expected to settle 1.5 million European refugees (equivalent to 4.7 million today relative to population size), the New Brunswick Premier told the Prime Minister he wasn’t interested. He worried unemployment was too high and we would have a hard enough time re-integrating the local boys coming back.
I believe that decision was likely one reason why New Brunswick’s economic growth never really reached the national level for decades after the war. These immigrants were ready and raring to go; they wanted a fresh start in Canada; they were a main driver of economic growth.
I know there is a segment of my readers—and lots more—that still believe we should be focused not on GDP growth but on GDP per capita growth. They are not big fans of immigration, at least in larger numbers, because they believe it holds down wages and disincentivizes productivity investment.
I think we can improve productivity without cutting our workforce demand off at the knees.
Someone told me that Doug Ford was aggressively looking to attract a large number of Ukrainian refugees. The Canadian Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, Sean Fraser, used the term “unlimited” earlier this week. He said we would attract a limitless number of Ukrainians to come to Canada to live, work, or study here for up to two years, and there is talk of permanent settlement for many of them.
Well, New Brunswick should want its share. According to IRCC, New Brunswick has been settling around 200 Ukrainian immigrants per year since the 2016 Census. At that time, we had 340 residents who were born in Ukraine. So, let’s assume some outward migration but say there are 700-800 Ukrainian-born residents in New Brunswick right now. What is reasonable? 2,000-to-3,000 or more?
There are several considerations.
One: unlike many of the eastern Europeans that have settled here in recent years, there is no expectation that the Ukrainian refugees will speak English (or French).
Two: they are looking to reunite refugees with relatives already living in Canada, so we should engage the population already living here.
Three: like the approach in Germany, we should be asking New Brunswickers to open up their homes to host the newcomers. There is virtually no housing available right now in much of the province, even if money isn’t an issue. If we get a sense that many want to stay long-term and get their permanent residency, we can develop a serious plan to expand housing.
Four: hopefully this doesn’t shortchange the thousands of economic immigrants looking to get into New Brunswick right now. Obviously, the priority will be the refugees but we need the economic migrants as well.
I saw someone on TV this week say we should give as many of them permanent residency as want it. The truth is that no matter how highly you think of Canada, not every refugee would prefer to live here. I have heard anecdotal stories of current refugees that have really struggled here and would prefer to go home.
I would suspect that if Ukraine goes back to some kind of “normal” many would choose to go back. Refugees flee their countries because they feel there is no other choice. Economic migrants choose to move to advance their career, family goals, etc. If they want to stay, we should be welcoming. If they want to go back home, ditto.
Finally, I hope Russia gets things figured out. As far as I can tell, the country has a fairly good education system. It has lots of natural resources. It has several large urban areas with clusters of industry, education, and research. I’m not sure why they don’t want to pull an Estonia and become a country that is embracing democracy, markets, and openness. All that cyberespionage capacity could easily become cybersecurity capacity and Russia could be a world leader.
This should raise the quality of life for all citizens over time. I’m not going to litigate all of the issues: the oligarchs, the view that Russians need an iron-fisted leader, etc. I have over 40 books in my library on Russia, from Nikolay Chernyshevsky’s What is to be done? (and Lenin’s of the same name) to a recent biography of Putin. I don’t claim to have any special insight but at a fundamental level, with the right institutions, government, and a little goodwill, why couldn’t it emerge as a kind of Canada–cold but prosperous?
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