The Case For A Single Maritime Province Isn’t So Strong Anymore
David Campbell is a Moncton-based economic development consultant and co-host of the Huddle podcast, Insights. The following piece was originally published on his blog, It’s the Economy, Stupid!, on Substack.
Those of you who have been following me and my writings over the past 20 years might remember a prediction I made on several occasions, starting in the mid-2000s.
I predicted that, circa 2026, the federal government would establish a Royal Commission on the Future of Atlantic Canada (or the Maritimes) and put Frank McKenna in charge. McKenna would roam the region for a year and then write a report concluding a Maritime union is the only path forward.
I made this prediction because population growth at the time in all four Atlantic provinces had basically ground to a halt, the region was aging much faster than the rest of the country, and GDP growth had started to sputter. My prediction only intensified through 2010-2015 because GDP growth (with the exception of PEI) also came to a virtual standstill.
That was one vision of the region’s future. An old, still heavily rural population with stagnant GDP, declining primary industries, and creaking infrastructure. McKenna would intone the only way to ensure fiscal stability would be a substantial rationalization of public services, a dramatic reduction in the size of the regional public service, etc.
Now, it is highly unlikely McKenna’s Royal Commission on the future of the Maritimes will go ahead.
The region has added tens of thousands to its population in recent years, the pandemic has positioned the region favourably, and we are starting to attract “our share” of immigrants. Even Newfoundland and Labrador has found religion and is now calling for far more immigrants to the Rock, starting now and moving forward.
There are still those who will advocate for one big regional province. They will say the Maritimes combined has a population about the size of Mississauga (which is an exaggeration but throw in Brampton and a couple of other Toronto suburbs and you get there).
But I don’t see the urgency now.
In my experience big, systemic change–of jurisdictions, organizations, and even individuals–requires a compelling case. That case has become a lot weaker since 2015-2016.
I believe there are many ways the region could collaborate for better outcomes. We share many of the same challenges and could benefit from the scale arising out of collaboration.
Don Mills and I talked with Blair Hyslop, Kathryn Lockhart, and Jeff Larsen this week about an interesting new initiative called the “Atlantic Investment Bubble” that would provide a regional angel investor tax credit to help expand the pool of investment capital in the region.
RELATED: Insights Podcast: The Atlantic Investment Bubble
I think we could collaborate more on immigration, workforce development, and other things and I think there is significant opportunity still to better harmonize regulations and rules across the region.
Nova Scotia is still insisting New Brunswick bees can’t fly into that province without the proper permits.
It might not be a bad idea to have a Royal Commission on the Future of Atlantic Canada but, now, it would take a much different and more optimistic tone.
Huddle publishes commentaries from groups and individuals on important business issues facing the Maritimes. These commentaries do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Huddle. To submit a commentary for consideration, contact editor Mark Leger: [email protected].