Immigrants A Key Part Of Halifax Recovery
HALIFAX — If 2019 was a banner year for Halifax’s economy, 2020 will be much different. Businesses continue to struggle with the fallout of Covid-19, and economists are predicting massive economic contractions this year as a result.
There’s room for optimism when it comes to Halifax’s economic recovery, but a lot will depend on how quickly the city can get its international migration back on track.
Ian Munro is the chief economist with the Halifax Partnership. He spoke to members of Halifax’s tourism industry last week to give an economic snapshot of the city in 2019, in the form of the Partnership’s Halifax Index.
Look closely at Munro’s presentation and you can see how international migration is tightly tied to the city’s economic fortunes. And whether immigration returns to its pre-pandemic levels will have a significant impact on how quickly the city recovers economically.
International immigration, Munro says, has been “key” to Halifax’s growth, and that growth has helped the city flourish in recent years.
Halifax was the third-fastest-growing city in Canada in 2019, with almost 10,000 new residents coming to the city. It was the fourth year in a row the city broke its growth records.
Munro pointed out that international immigration was “key” to that growth.
His numbers show that two-thirds (6,509) of those new residents in 2019 came from outside of Canada, which is a 20 percent increase over 2018 and the largest annual figure on record.
Meanwhile, international students led enrollment growth at the city’s post-secondary institutions for the eleventh year in a row.
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The Halifax Index shows an additional 340 international students enrolled in Halifax’s universities over last year, representing 5.2 percent growth
The city’s record-breaking population growth last year mirrored an increasingly healthy business environment.
Munro pointed out that economic growth in the city is closely tied to population and labour force growth. And both those indicators in Halifax are driven by youth retention, international student attraction, and immigration.
“On all these fronts Halifax had great numbers in 2019, including record highs for international students and immigration,” Munro said.
The city’s labour force expanded alongside its population last year. The Halifax Index highlights that the city saw “uncharacteristically large increases in employment, the participation rate, and the overall size of the labour pool” in 2019.
The labour force grew by 6,400 people last year, which was a 2.6 percent increase and “well above” the city’s 10-year average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent.
Once again, Munro said those gains were driven by international student attraction and immigration (as well as keeping more young people in the province).
Meanwhile, the city’s GDP grew by a whopping 2.6 percent, average annual incomes went up, and the percentage of business owners who thought Halifax was an “above-average” place to do business hit a record-high 32 percent.
All things considered, “2019 was a stellar year for the Halifax economy,” Munro said.
Everyone understands 2020 will be significantly worse thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, but Munro said how quickly the city recovers will depend in large part on if, and how quickly, international migration picks back up.
He pointed out that India and China represent 36 percent of immigration to Halifax (and 56 percent of all international students coming to the city).
It’s possible, he said, that chilling international relations between Canada and China and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic in India will hinder immigration from those important countries.
It’s also possible that Canada’s relative stability could make the country (and Halifax) even more attractive.
“Canada may take on an additional shine for international students” because of the relatively good handling of our Covid-19 outbreak compared to competing destinations like The United States and Great Britain.