Why New Brunswick Needs More Immigrants
In recent years, a healthy debate has taken root on the role immigration can play to build tomorrow’s New Brunswick.
A central theme so far has been whether New Brunswick is putting the cart before the horse by ramping up immigration at this time. Some have taken the view that we should first create the right environment for growth so that we have good jobs on offer for both New Brunswickers and immigrants alike.
In reality, the two go hand in hand. Of course, we must work on making New Brunswick a more attractive place to do business. But the fact of the matter is that welcoming more immigrants is central to that work.
To illustrate this point, let’s look back briefly at the history of job growth in New Brunswick.
We all know our province is aging fast and our labour force—the number of people working or looking for work—is declining. This was not always so. Not that long ago, New Brunswick’s labour force was growing very fast. Take for instance, the thirty years from 1978 to 2008. During that period, New Brunswick’s population grew by 47,000. Yet, the number of workers grew almost three times faster, by 121,000.
This begs the following question: If welcoming more immigrants to work in New Brunswick amounts to putting the cart before the horse, how did our economy manage to absorb such a massive wave of extra workers back then? What did all those new workers end up doing to earn a living?
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The answer is that they took up a variety of jobs. Some of them, about a third, found employment in the public sector. Another quarter or so found jobs catering mostly to the needs of the local population in industries such as retail and wholesale trade, food and accommodation, etc.
There is, however, a broad swath of jobs that were created because New Brunswick had a ready supply of additional labour available to entrepreneurs from here and outside our borders. Examples of industries that benefited from this growing pool of labour include poultry farming and processing in the Madawaska, modular home building in the Acadian Peninsula and elsewhere, light manufacturing in Kent County and the many back office and customer contact centers across the province.
These industries account for tens of thousands of mostly export-driven jobs worth billions of dollars in economic activity and hundreds of millions in taxes. If they cannot secure the workers they need in the years ahead, some businesses may have little choice but to shift their activities elsewhere. There is in fact anecdotal evidence suggesting this process may already be in motion.
There is thus much at risk if New Brunswick’s labour force continues to decline. Since 2013, New Brunswick has lost on average about 2,800 workers annually. Unless we find ways to reverse the tide, we should expect similar losses for about another 15 years as baby boomers continue to retire from paid work.
But there is a silver lining. For a few years now, immigration in New Brunswick is up smartly and this is showing up in the labour force data. Since 2013, the number of New Brunswick workers born in Canada is down 15,000. The number of landed immigrants, however, is up nearly 4,000.
To be sure, immigration is not the only answer to a declining labour force. More needs to be done on many other fronts. For instance, employers, governments and educational institutions must continue to work together to enable more New Brunswickers to join or stay longer in the labour force. And, as indicated earlier, building a better business environment would make the province more attractive not only to immigrants but to workers here and in other provinces, including New Brunswick expats.
The reality, however, is that without a major boost in immigration, the odds we can reverse the tide are dim.
Immigration provides a growing contribution to our province. More and more immigrants are coming to our province because we offer a good quality of life, affordable housing and stable jobs. And, contrary to popular belief, their pay is competitive: new immigrants coming to New Brunswick do not earn significantly less than those who settle elsewhere in Canada.
We must build on our recent immigration successes. As we gain more experience over time, I am convinced we will find the right recipe for welcoming even many more immigrants in both our urban and rural communities.
It’s certainly worth a try. Immigration may not be a panacea, but it is not an economic pipe dream either. It is, in fact, our single best opportunity for building a better New Brunswick.
Richard Saillant is an economist and author. In the coming weeks, he and economist David Campbell will be joining the New Brunswick Multicultural Council on a 15-community tour around the province to discuss New Brunswick’s demographic realities and the role immigration could play in building stronger communities and more prosperous economy.